Showing posts with label precautionary principle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label precautionary principle. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

A Prophecy

 Abbreviations used:

CC - climate change

CO2 - carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) responsible for global warming (GW)

GHG - greenhouse gases. Gases like carbon dioxide and methane which trap outgoing infrared radiation (heat) thus contributing to global warming. GHG act like an insulating layer: the more there are, the better the insulation and the hotter the earth gets.

GW - global warming 

           Each of our action produces unintended consequences. Some of these consequences are beneficial; others, not so much.. (Edgar Morin: La Méthode, "écologie de l'action)

           In thinking about the trajectory the world is following - ecocidal, suicidal -, I am led to reflect on the role that neoconservative values, ideology and hubris play in the unfolding tragedy. Neocons adulate the Brash and the Bold, the iconoclasts, the mavericks and scofflaws: Donald Trump, the Philippines' homicidal macho president Rodrigo Duterte, France's Islamophobic populist Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage of Brexit (in)fame. You get the picture: the folks who love to strut their political incorrectness (and gain popularity and votes doing so).




                                           Let's hope Honest Abe was right..

http://transparencycanada.blogspot.ca/2017/06/b-ook-review-corey-robin-reactionary.html
 
        I believe this political attitude can be legitimately seen as an extension, intensification (or degeneration) of the hubris of Western European Christian culture. Five centuries ago, Christian Europe arrogantly assumed the role of converting the "lost souls" outside Europe to the One True Faith. Over time, the power of the Church dwindled, the mask fell away, revealing economic exploitation - and the political leverage it brought - as the true goals.

          Today, the folly of this approach to running a planet is becoming evident. Global warming (GW), due to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of human industry, transport and industrialized agriculture, threatens the world's major food production centers. Terrorism and war wait in the wings. The traditional horsemen of the apocalypse: famine, plague and war.. or - more cynically - "Mother Nature's birth regulation program"..



         It is now becoming clear, that in order to survive and thrive, human societies should act to minimize the production of "unknown unknowns". (We except those hardy individuals who select themselves as "expendable", who deliberately adopt risky occupations, for example, astronauts, soldiers, doctors fighting ebola epidemics, firefighters. There are legitimate risks that need to be taken and someone has to take them!) Unknown unknowns are the most troublesome unknowns, the ones we are ignorant of. Such unknowns generally emerge and become impactful when a system (ecosystem, social system, organism, enterprise..) is pushed beyond the normal range of values it was designed to function in. Known unknowns, on the other hand, are the one's we have learned to live with like the natural seasonal variations in temperature and storm risk. In principle we can adapt our behaviors to the expected range of variation of known unknowns. We put aside light jackets and sweaters as well as raincoats and umbrellas to deal with the (known, expected) variations in spring and fall weather. For winter, we put aside snow shovels, heavy boots, salt and sand.

          When it comes to the health of essential ecosystem services, to maintaining climate stability, or the potential for ethnoracial conflict, we should act, collectively, so that the primary unknowns society has to deal with are known unknowns. In particular, we should avoid pushing vital systems - upon which our lives depend - outside the normal range of operating values they were designed (or evolved) to handle. Such wise policies would, for example, stabilize GHG emissions to minimize nasty (unexpected) surprises in the functioning of vital climatic systems and large regional ecosystems


         A prophecy: it is now too late to avoid Imminent Mass Human Die Off (IMHDO). Put bluntly - the world is screwed (note 1). I predict (going out on a limb here) that it is now too late to stabilize global warming within 1, 1.5, 2 degree Celsius (or whatever the limit of the month is..) A Permian style meltdown of polar region carbon stores has begun, reinforced by powerful positive feed backs (note 2). If the brakes on greenhouse gas emission were slammed on hard, there is a decent chance the planet would move back from a transition to a decidedly warmer global climate. However, this would just be good luck. It is just as likely, if not more so, that "rising living standards" will continue to pump up greenhouse gas levels and that Gaia, the planetary ecosystem, will soon tip into a warmer climatic submode (note 3). Perhaps future generations will live on an earth warmer by 4 or 5 C compared to the world we live in today. Portions of the world could actually become too hot to sustain human life before the century is over.

http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-could-make-south-asia-too-hot-for-human-survival-by-2100/a-39944935 

            A wounded earth would then - eventually - slide into the next Ice Age. The warmest portion of the present Interglacial warm period, the hypsitherm, occurred several thousand years ago. We should be cooling off now, slowly sliding into the next glacial era. It is interesting to note that the earth was, in fact, beginning to cool off until the industrial revolution came along and began pumping all those GHG into the atmosphere. The collapse of industrial civilization and global population will, one presumes, allow natural Ice Age dynamics to re-instate themselves. A diminished humanity living on an ecologically diminished earth will encounter the challenges of the next Ice Age with diminished technological capacity to adapt. A Karmic payback, one images, for our arrogance, inflation and hubris.

"As a man sows, so shall he reap" - Jesus

"As you sow the seed so shall you reap the fruit."  - Buddha

            God/dess knows how the combined impacts of species extinction, ecosystem service destruction, and planetary overheating will affect the dynamics of the next Ice Age. Would a damaged earth experience a harsher than normal Ice Age? Or would it be delayed and shortened in length because of all the GHG? At this stage of the game, it is anyone's guess - unknown unknowns!



               Yes, indeedy, the world is a ball of confusion - and our current (failing) culture is only making things worse. Please take a few minutes to read these wise words.

http://milwaukeereflections.blogspot.ca/2017/08/writing-in-end-times-comprehensive.html 


               Can anything be done to stave off the impending collapse (or, at least, mitigate its effects)?

dodging-extinction-part-3-what-can-we-do


             I also strongly recommend the following two "experimental" novels by our friend Don Hayward. These explore how the collapse of industrial society might unfold in Ontario providence, Canada, and how a new civilization based on respect for Earth, cooperation and local production and governance could arise (if we are lucky).

Hayward: after-the-last-day 

Hayward: the-seventh-path 



notes:

1- Note that I wrote "the world is screwed", not "the earth is screwed". The earth, the planet, and the life thereof will survive. We may succeed in damaging the earth's ecosystems to the point that all vertebrates - including ourselves - go extinct (an extremely unlikely proposition!) Nevertheless, insects, plants and bacteria (including primitive bacteria living buried miles deep in rock under the sea floor) would survive. 

             By "world" I mean a civilizational or cultural perspective on the human condition. A "world" - the Late Classical world of the Mediterranean or the world of the Inuit (Eskimos) before the arrival of Europeans - arises from the interaction of human imagination and the biological and physical world in which that human spirit is immersed and from which it arises. Whether or not humanity goes extinct, our present "World" is dead meat because it is ecologically and demographically unviable, unsustainable.


2- The Permian mass extinction event, 250 million years ago, was the worst: more than 90% of plant and animal species on land and sea went extinct. This mass extinction bears creepy similarities to what is happening to our earth today. Then, as today, massive releases of GHG caused planet-wide GW. The only difference is that then the GHG were due to vast subcontinental volcanic eruptive zones (the Siberian Traps), today the GHG are due to human economic and agricultural activity. 

         One of the most disquieting similarities relates to the nature of the actual kill mechanisms. The initial Permian volcanic GHG emissions warmed polar regions. This caused permafrost to thaw and decompose, releasing massive quantities of GHG (CO2 and methane). These new emissions amplified the initial GHG warming (positive feedback loop). In addition, methane - an even more potent GHG than CO2 - was released in industrial quantities as buried methane containing ice thawed in shallow polar coastal waters. It is this second pulse of GHG that is generally accepted today as the knock out punch that did most of the killing. In addition, Late Permian ocean waters became stratified (reducing the vertical circulation that oxygenates deep water) and acidified (from atmospheric CO2 absorption and seabed methane release). Life disappeared from large regions of the oceans as toxic anoxic (no oxygen) zones spread. Now, all these kill mechanisms are becoming active today: permafrost is rapidly melting, methane ice in shallow coastal waters is thawing and releasing methane, anoxic zones are spreading..

                          massive Arctic methane blow hole, Siberia (aerial photo)


             Close up of blow hole. Note tiny human figures on upper rim (left side)

  
3- Ice Ages are periods of about 100,000 years in which global temperatures drop by about 5 C or more. These are separated by shorter Interglacial warm periods lasting several tens of thousand of years. The current Ice Age / Interglacial periodicity is a relatively recent phenomenon in earth's climatic history. It is due to the current patterns of deep water ocean circulation arising from the joining of North and South America about two million years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

           Not all Ice Ages and Interglacials are created equal! Some Ice Ages are colder than others, some Interglacials are warmer than others. If Ice Ages and Interglacials are two dominant modes that the earth's climate systems swing through then Ice Ages and Interglacials possess several sub-modes. It is conceivable that our current GHG emissions might "pop" our current climate system into a warmer sub-mode. An analog to the world we are probably headed toward would be the last Interglacial (Eemian) when hippopotamuses waddled in the Thames and Rhine rivers while forests grew on what is now arctic tundra.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian 

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Book Review: A New History of Life

Peter ward and Joe Kirschvink: A New History of Life, Bloomsbury Press (New York), 2015: 356 pages, extensive chapter notes, index, graphs, diagrams, photos, sketches - well illustrated.












             


          



 Peter Ward




Abbreviations used:
 
CC - climate change
CO2 - carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas
GHG - greenhouse gas (responsable for global warming and climate change)
GW - global warming
mya - million years ago


  Joe Kirschvink

"With every molecule of carbon dioxide we pump into the atmosphere we are ignoring the early warning sirens that rapid rises in carbon dioxide are the commonality between more than ten mass extinctions of the deep past and what is happening today. Those extinctions were caused not by asteroid impact, but from rapid increases in volcanically produced atmospheric greenhouse gases and the global warming they produced. A terrifying new paradigm of mass extinction has arisen this century: "greenhouse mass extinctions", a name overtly chosen to describe the cause of the vast majority of species killed off by mass extinctions in the past." (page 3)

"The increasing acceptance of the dominant roles of oxygen and carbon dioxide levels in understanding not only large-scale patterns but nuances of life's progression on our planet is in many respects a twenty-first century innovation in interpreting Earth history. As is the understanding that two other important gases have played dominant roles in the story of life, and in the pages to come: hydrogen sulfide and methane. Their stories are written in rock, life, and death as well." (page 27)

"Over and over, however, it really looks like a dominant theme in the history of life is that times of crisis promote new innovation. Diversity stays low, but disparity - the measure of the number of different, an in the dinosaur's case, radically different body plans and anatomies - skyrockets. An analogy comes from Tom Wolfe's wonderful book The Right Stuff. In it he describes the often short and violent ends of test pilots in the late 1950s, when giant new jet planes were being developed. Sooner or later any test pilot would find himself in a death dive. But Wolfe describes the reactions of the pilots: very cooly going through the progressions - trying method A, no, try B, try C... In the latest Triassic world, so many organisms were those crashing jets, with evolution as the pilot, trying this morphology, then another, then another. To use this analogy, it was dinosaurs that pulled out of the death spiral that the low-oxygen, late Triassic biosphere had become by evolving the most sophisticated and efficient set of lungs that the world has ever seen." (page 247-8)
          Necessity is the Mother of Invention!




  Hynerpeton: Devonian age proto-tetrapod ("4 legged", all modern terrestrial vertebrates are tetrapods). It lived 360 mya. A "transitional" form with both lungs and gills 

              I read this book for two reasons. Firstly, I am interested in Self-Organizing Systems and biological evolution is the prime example of Self Organization at work. Life began with proto-organic molecules self-organizing as a result of a flux of energy through the medium (sea water) which housed them. New History, as the title indicates, is a synthesis of contemporary discoveries, dating back to improved fossil dating technology (non-radioactive isotopic analysis developed in the 1960s) and culminating in the first decade of the new millennium with a deeper understanding of the physical drivers of evolution and mass extinctions.

              Profs Ward and Kirschvink are major contributors to the emerging "New Synthesis" (yet unamed) which perceives life as an emerging Self Organizing phenomenon. They are pioneers in advancing our understanding of the interactions between life and the physics and chemistry of the planet (particularly atmospheric chemistry and physics). They have made major contributions  in the dating of the Permo-Triassic boundary (Late Permian Mass Extinction) and elucidating the structure, duration and nature of its successive exterminatory pulses.  


 Ichthyostega: Devonian age amphibian, an inhabitant of the extensive marine mangrove forests of the time. Ichthyostega was an aquatic predator but was able to traverse short streches of land either to feed on giant insects or to change swamps.

              My second reason for reading New History is to provide myself with intellectual arms against CC deniers. For my own peace of mind, I to bury any niggling doubts remaining about the reality and seriousness of CC / GW. I want to finish this "debate" so I can move on to more pressing issues demanding my attention (note 1) 

          Perhaps more importantly, I want to prepare myself to offer people, especially younger people (at my age, anyone less than 50..), a fact-based understanding of the relation between living organisms, including humans, and the physical environment we share. "Normal", "traditional" regional climates are rapidly shifting, dislocating, re-organizing. Many people will soon wake to this new reality, to the new normal. In fact, due to the increasingly wacky weather, many people are awakening but a tipping point in public consciousness has not been reached in most countries. National governments do indeed make appropriate noises but outside of Scandinavia, Germany, Scotland and more recently, China, efforts to make the transition to a green economy are more words than action. And, even in the above mentioned countries, the actions taken are, by my standards, still somewhat "anemic".

            I want to be pro-active, I want to have facts at my disposal (and useful skills, practical knowledge for the hard days coming). Unnatural "natural" disasters are beginning to waken "the masses" from their consumer culture induced hypnosis. Among those awakening from deep denial, there will be many who remain stunned, confused, disoriented. Providing them with a realistic Roadmap of our New Reality may, I hope, help them to take sane, realistic, corrective actions. 

           I concede that it is late, very late. We have waited far too long to launch the transition from a fossil fuel to a renewable energy economy. There will be heavy costs to pay for our continued inaction. At this late date, we may not be able to save the house but, with luck, we may be able to save some furniture and valuables. We may lose a lot but we are not lost (yet..) To further delay action - given what I now know about the risks implied by CC / GW - would be simply immoral.

         Building "Cultural Refugia" is my current priority. "Debating" the scientific - or other - "reality" of CC simply wastes precious time and energy. In a sense, I read New History to help me turn this page and get on with something new.

         On a purely intellectual level, New History is a fascinating read on its own merits. I confess that Prof Ward is not my favorite science writer: sloppy proof reading leaves too many typos, syntaxically challenged and ambiguous sentences. On occasion, a desire to communicate to a general readership leads to oversimplication or incomplete arguements thereby vitiating the very arguments he is trying to present. However, New History's obvious importance as a major work of popular scientific synthesis - in a politically important and rapidly evolving area of study - far outweigh such "stylistic" quibbles.

         Given the importance of GHG emissions to CC, New History's appearance is timely on several fronts. It represents an emerging holistic view of the co-evolution of life and its environment. Darwin, of course, noted such interactions and correctly called attention to their importance in understanding the Saga of Life on earth.

         However, it took another 100 years, to the 1960s, for science to develop the tools, physical and conceptual, to explore the details of ecosystem / environment interaction through Deep Time, the billions of years life has existed on earth. The original "breakthroughs" (more evident as such in retrospect) were the development of measures which record past biological activity and the climate conditions they took place under. For example, the comparison of the ratios of non-radioactive isotopes of biologically active elements in fossils like oxygen, carbon, sulfur.. Because these isotopes are not subject to radioactive decay, they lock into the fossil record valuable indices of organism / environment interaction.

         Biological processes favor isotopically light elements. Carbon 12 (6 protons, 6 neutrons in nucleus) is absorbed a wee bit faster than C 13 (7 neutrons) or C 14 (8 neutrons). Variations in the relative amounts of different isotopes of biologically active elements (carbon, oxygen, sulfur..) found in rocks can provide valuable clues to the first appearance of life, its origin, intensity and disappearance.

          Building on the successes of non-radioactive isotopic paleontological studies, a deepening knowledge of the nature, sequence and duration of major evolutionary events has emerged over the past 50 years. In the first decades of the new millennium, these discoveries have sparked a "new synthesis", a marvellously rich, detailed and profound understanding of life's emergence and its unfolding interaction with the physical environments of one small planet of an insignificant star in an insignificant galaxy. The subject matter of New History is this New Science of Life: the title was well chosen.

           It is perhaps on a deeper, "philosophical" level that the New Science of Life will have its greatest, long term impacts.

          Life, as now understood, has four major requirements:

1- A flow of energy of sufficient strength and constancy. On earth this energy flow arrives from the sun as radiant energy, largely as visible light

2- An appropriate solvent for biochemical reactions to take place in. Dissolving biochemical reactants in a solvent increases the probability that two reactant molecules will encounter each other, rendering chemical reaction possible. The solvent must also be present in sufficient quantities in liquid form under ambient planetary conditions for life to emerge and flourish. On earth the universal biosolvent is water. It is postulated that life might flourish in saturated water / ammonia solutions which freeze well below the freezing point of water. These solutions occur in abundance on the outer planets and moons of our own solar system. Other solvents for low temperature biology have been proposed: liquid ammonia, liquid nitrogen. Their potential biochemistries are highly speculative at the present state of knowledge. 


                          Titan, a moon of Saturn rich in low temperature proto-organic
chemistry (and exotic life?) 

3- Chemical cycling. Chemical cycling occurs when the products of a chemical reaction are also its inputs. This means that, given an adequate energy flow (point 1 above), and an adequate supply of raw materials (point 2 - biosolvent), the reaction has the potential of self-maintenance. This is the first step toward the capacity to reproduce individual organisms. Chemical cycling has been observed in the atmosphere of the low temperature moon of Saturn, Titan.

            Biologically driven chemical cycling on earth creates huge stores of energy storing, energy releasing or otherwise biologically useful chemicals. Such substances are considered "biosignatures" or "biomarkers" in the search for extra-terrestrial life since the presence of life maintains their abundance at levels which are extremely far from chemical equilibrium. On earth, the photosynthesis of plants maintains the level of (extremely reactive!) oxygen at levels impossible on a dead world. Oxygen is used by living organisms to release biologically useful energy by oxidizing energy rich hydrocarbons (sugars, starches, fats..) in the slow burn of metabolism. Methane levels are way out of chemical equilibrium on Titan - are there Titanian microbes burning acetylene into methane to obtain life energy?

                              The cycling of carbon by earth life (click to enlarge image)

4- Polymeric chemistry. In polymeric reactions, repetitive "base units" are strung together like links in a chain. This creates the possibility of storing information - a "message" or "code" - by adding slight variations to each link of the chain. DNA and RNA molecules are used by life on earth to encode the "blueprints" or "recipes" used to synthesize essential biochemicals like proteins. DNA also contains the whole body code that allows organisms to produce offspring similar to themselves, thus living species persist over time, transcending the death of individuals. Copying procedures are never perfect, however, allowing random mutations to occur in the genetic code when DNA molecules are copied. Such mutations provide the raw material of evolution: since mutated organisms are different than the "standard model", natural selection will favor the propagation of the mutants best adapted to the environment they live in.


 
           In 1979, physical chemist and inventor, James Lovelock coined the term "Gaia hypothesis" for a new way of defining and looking at life. Lovelock was working on a contract with NASA to devise ways of detecting life on other planets. He came up with the idea of searching for spectroscopic signals of "biosignature" molecules (point 3 above). A telescope - on earth or in space - would search for the frequencies of light (or infrared - heat) energy given off or absorbed by biologically important molecules in the atmospheres of distant planets. For example, In the earth's upper atmosphere, diatomic - two atom - oxygen molecules are broken down and re-assembled by ultraviolet rays into triatomic ozone molecules. This reaction is marked by a strong absorption line in light passing through the earth's atmosphere. This line is considered a potential "biomarker" for future exoplanet life detection missions by NASA.


               Lovelock's work with NASA led him to consider the totality of life on earth as a sort of "planetary super-organism", hence the name Gaia Hypothesis: Gaia was the archaic Earth Mother of the ancient Greeks. The beauty of the hypothesis lies in its recognition that life is an emergent phenomenon, rising from the interactions between life and the physical body of the earth: oceans, atmosphere, soils, the rocky substrate, glaciers and polar ice caps. In some ways, the Gaia Hypothesis, appearing in the mid-twentieth century, can be compared to Darwin's theory of Natural Selection which appeared in mid-nineteenth century. Both theories culminated and synthesized a period of scientific discoveries about the nature of life which could not easily be incorporated into the dominant world view of the times. In Darwin's case, the picture of life evolving new species over Deep Time "collided" - called into question - the traditional Christian theological view that God created all species at the same time, some 6000 years ago in the Near Past. The Gaia Hypothesis sees all life, including humans, as an emergent, co-evolving, self-regulating system maintaining itself in a "bio-geo-chemical" milieu through delicately balanced, mutual interactions with that environment. This world view collides with the dominant anthropocentric worldview which sees humanity "above" Nature, its "master" who freely exploits "natural wealth" for the "profit" of our species. Our imploding ecology (the Sixth Mass Extinction - note 2) and deregulated climate give the lie to this ideological fallacy, of course..

          Lovelock's hypothesis found a natural resonance with ecological movements and back-to-nature enthusiasts. It's "scientific" dimensions were muted and it became romanticized as a modern image of Mother Nature. (I'm not negating the validity - or necessity - of these interpretations. I'm just making an observation..)  Scientifically, though, as all good scientific hypotheses must, the Gaia Hypothesis became the subject of professional scrutiny and criticism. Unlike Darwin's Natural Selection which has proven resilient over time, adapting itself to the rigors of creative criticism, the fate of the Gaia Hypothesis (like the earth itself!) is still unclear.

             New History, although it never mentions the Gaia Hypothesis directly, discusses some its flaws (and some additional flaws generated by non-scientific enthusiasts). Gaian enthusiasts often laud the "balance" of nature. Some speak of Gaia having meaning, purpose and plans (again, I don't deny such ideas: they are simply not part of the scientific Hypothesis elaborated by Lovelock. Lovelock, in fact, explicitly denies meaning, consciousness or goals to Gaia. Note 3). New History correctly points out that life, while opportunistic and struggling to survive and flourish:

1- Only has a limited regulatory power over biogeochemical processes. Lovelock, in some writings, has claimed that all aspects of the chemical milieu we live in are regulated by life. This is true, in a sense, but it does not mean that "Gaia's" control is arbitrary or total. Carbon dioxide and oxygen levels of the atmosphere are linked processes so cannot be arbitrarily adjusted as Gaia might like, nor can they be manipulated with impunity. Too much oxygen results in massive forest fires which kill off trees reducing photosynthetic oxygen production, thereby lowering percentage oxygen content of the atmosphere to sustainable limits. Gaia has limits..

2- Gaia can also act, blindly, against Her own self interests. Early photosynthetic microbes drew down massive quantities of CO2 from the primitive atmosphere which was extremely rich in the gas by modern standards. Since the early sun was cooler than the sun of today, the drop in CO2 - a greenhouse gas - caused the earth to cool off - and freeze. The earth went through several such "snowball earth" phases several billions of years ago. The seas froze solid, except perhaps for an equatorial "slush belt" where some marginal photosynthetic activity could take place. Life never went extinct but became quiescent. Over time, volcanic activity would raise global CO2 levels, the earth would thaw out and microbial life would bloom again: absorbing CO2 and releasing oxygen in industrial quantities till the temperature fell, provoking another universal snowball earth, lasting a hundred million years or so.

            There is much food for thought in this book. The main message for me is that life is an emerging, self-complexifying process in tight interaction with its physical milieu upon which it depends, that healthy life modifies its environment so it can flourish and that this control is, at best, very partial. New History is a good read and, as I wrote earlier, one of the best popular syntheses of the New Science of Life available for the non-specialist reader. 

notes:

1- To simplify an argument, a bit. It is today probably too late to make the transition to a green (post fossil fuel) economy without "major disruptions": 

- rolling regional crop failures due to CC and disruption of the traditional weather patterns around which traditional agricultures were built: the Asian monsoons, for example, 

- mass human die-off, exterminatory warfare, 

- cultural regression.. 

Basically, I want to devote myself to preserving the best that 8000 (?) years of Patriarchal Culture has produced: calculus, the periodic table, the scientific method, Science, the Ideals of Universal Human Rights and the Universality of Human Nature, feminist liberation.. Taking a page from the christian monasteries of the Dark and Middle Ages, I propose building Cultural Refugia. These are self-sustaining communities linked into self-sustaining regional networks of communities that could weather the hard days ahead, preserving what humanity has accomplished and learned. Intentional communities like Transition Initiatives can, in the interim, serve as prototypes and models.


A rather well run initiative in Ontario, Canada:
 

2- The Sixth Extinction. There have been five natural mass extinction events (and about ten minor, sometimes regional, ones) over the earth's history. During a major extinction event half or more of species go extinct in a geologically short period of time. Mass extinctions are dramatic and cause evolution to veer off in novel, unexpected directions. They are times of innovation. But they are rare events, occurring at intervals of tens of millions of years or longer. Thus at least 95% of species go extinct between mass extinction periods, the so-called "background" extinction level.

              Estimates of the human-caused sixth extinction vary a bit from expert to expert but the consensus seems to be that something like 40 - 50% of animals (not species but individuals) on both land and sea have gone extinct over the last four decades! Unbelievable but true. Estimated species extinction rates today are also far elevated over natural "background" extinction rates.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/radical-conservation/2015/oct/20/the-four-horsemen-of-the-sixth-mass-extinction

3- I have found Lovelock somewhat inconsistent: on the one hand, arguing that Gaia has no ultimate purpose or goal and then inventing bizarre teleologies - goal directed behaviors - that I wouldn't shake a stick at. In one text - which I can't relocate - I recall Lovelock arguing that marine kelp (seaweed) release an iodine containing gas "in order to" transport iodine inland "for the the use of" terrestrial vertebrates. Iodine is used to synthesize an essential metabolism stimulating hormone in terrestrial vertebrate thyroid glands. Such an idea in not absurd, of course. In symbiotic relations, organism A produces something or does something that helps organism B survive and B returns the favor. Scratch my back and I'll scratch yours.. Both parties benefit from this naturally emerging specialization of function, which being acting upon by natural selection, becomes more effective over time. Thus each partner mutates to better match its partner's needs and better exploit the benefits offered by the partner. The hand is shaped to fit the glove, the glove to fit the hand.. Bees evolved to feed on the nectar of flowers and pollinate them in the process. Flowers evolved to feed pollinating bees.

             However, Lovelock's idea that kelp evolved to send iodine inland is incomplete. What benefit do marine kelp get from providing terrestrial vertebrates with essential iodine - the link is not obvious!

             The fact that profs Ward and Kirschvink, as well as other earth scientists writing on evolution,  don't - or rarely - mention the Gaia hypothesis is interesting. Perhaps it is a case of academic snubbing. Lovelock has been criticized for his lack of biological savy before. Recall: he is a physical chemist who invents devices used in detecting and analyzing trace bio-signature molecules, hence his work with NASA designing remote life-detection strategies. Perhaps earth scientists resent the forays of a physical scientist on their turf..

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Book Review: Vaclav Smil: Cycles of Life

Vaclav Smil: Cycles of Life, civilization and the biosphere, Scientific American Library, 1997, 203 pages, index, "profusely" illustrated (photos, graphs, sketches). No glossary of terms. Concise, well written. A revised edition, published in 2000, is available in paperback.

abbreviations used in this article:

C - carbon
C02 - carbon dioxide
H - hydrogen
N - nitrogen
NOx - nitrogen oxides
P - phosphorous
S - sulfur
SOx - sulfur oxides

         "Thus human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years." Page 99, citing Roger Revelle and Hans Suess in the first issue of the earth science journal, Tellus, 1957 - nearly sixty years ago!



                            Carbon, as it cycles through the atmosphere, waters and biosphere

      Despite its age this is a worthy reference text for the environmental activist's or permaculturist's library. It's subject is the biospheric cycling of essential chemical elements, how human agriculture and industrial activity have perturbed these cycles, and what the consequences are or might be. If we persist in disturbing the natural flows and cycling of vital nutritional elements upon which our physical existence depends, we should expect trouble..

      Conversely, correcting our perturbation of cyclic elemental fluxes will solve  - or alleviate - many of the problems we face today relating to food production, economic health, human health and, ultimately, geopolitical stability. All aspects of life, in short, are touched - visibly or invisibly - by these great natural cycles: they are physical bases of life itself.

       Life, we read in our school biology texts, is a "cyclic" chemical phenomenon driven by solar energy: plants capture solar energy and use it to synthesize energy storing molecules (hydrocarbons: sugars, starches, fats and oils). Plants use this stored solar energy to grow and reproduce. Herbivores capture and exploit the energy flux of photosynthesis by eating plants. Carnivores, in turn, exploit the highly concentrated nutrients stored in the bodies of herbivores.

       "In nature, nothing is wasted": excreted or dead matter is broken down by decomposers (invertebrates, bacteria, fungi) in order to capture residual energy and nutrient stores. The end result are simple energy poor molecules (water, carbon dioxide, methane, sulfur and nitrogen oxides..) Plants absorb these through their roots and leaves and assemble them into high energy life supporting molecules through the Living Alchemy of photosynthesis. Observe the cyclic movement of C: plant to herbivore to carnivore to decomposer and back to plant again. Energy: the energy stored in solar radiation (light) turns the wheel..



                           biospheric cycling of nitrogen

          About 30 elements of the periodic table are (more or less) "essential" to life (some are more critical than others).

          The Big Three: hydrogen (H), carbon (C) and oxygen (O). The basic energy storing molecules (sugars, starches, oils and fats) are called "hydrocarbons", reflecting the dominance of the Big Three.


C6H12O6 + 6O2  -->  6CO2 + 6H2O + liberated energy 

Oxidation of glucose - sugar. One molecule of glucose is "burned" with six oxygen molecules to form six CO2 molecules and six water molecules. When this reaction occurs in living cells (plant or animal), it is called "respiration". The energy liberated by the controlled burning of glucose is used for biological work: cellular repair, growth, movement, mental activity (sensation, thinking..)

          Several other elements or types of elements (metals) are essential:

- Phosphorous (P) - storage / release of energy in convenient "packets" to power muscular contraction, neural activity and the synthesis of essential biochemicals.

- Nitrogen (N), Sulfur (S) - incorporated into structural proteins and enzymes (biological catalysts essential for triggering, controlling metabolic processes). Because of their high degree of biological activity and natural abundance, unwanted P, N, S compounds are often extremely toxic: ammonia (NH3) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) are real killers.

- Iron and other metals are employed in electron (and energy) transfer processes which capture and transform energy into forms usable by biological systems. Examples: hemoglobin, a molecule transporting O to the whole body, found in the blood of animals. Chlorophyll is the green pigment of plants, responsible for the primary capture of solar energy in photosynthesis.

           So what makes essential nutrient elements cycle in the first place? What turns the wheel? In short, energy. (Professor Smil's primary field of research is "Energetics" or the study of energy flows and transformations in natural and human built systems: ecosystems, cities, civilizations.. see note 1). Much cycling of essential nutrient elements is through non-living processes which derive their energy either from the sun or the "fossil" heat energy from earth's initial gravitational collapse stored in earth's core. Some core heat is also produced from the decay of radioactive elements (radium, uranium..) which liberates energy stored in the nuclei. Winds transport gases like sulfur or nitrogen oxides (SOx, NOx). Winds are actually a form of solar energy, driven by unequal warming of earth's surface by the sun.

           The hydrological - water transport - cycle, consisting of evaporation, transport by wind and deposition as rain or snow, is driven by solar energy. When water evaporates it absorbs energy - heat - originating in the sun. Precipitation can dissolve and transport chemical elements.

           Carbon dioxide dissolved in rain chemically "weathers" - erodes - rocks. This process is itself fairly complex with several feedback loops. It removes carbon (as CO2) from the air. It liberates mineral "fertilizers" necessary for plant growth (iron, potassium..). In the long run, weathering wears down mountains, sculpting the face of the earth. Some of the CO2 removed from the atmosphere by weathering ends up in flowing water as carbonate or bicarbonate ions (CO3, HCO3). These ions enter the sea, are absorbed into the shells of microscopic plants and the animals that eat them (plankton). When these organisms die, the shells fall through the water column. Most of the carbonate is dissolved or eaten before it hits the sea floor but a tiny fraction falls to the seabed as C - and O - rich sediment. Sediment accumulates over millions of years and is compressed by its own weight into sedimentary rocks. If uncompensated this burial - "sequestration" - of C and O would, in the long run, deplete the biosphere of C and O. However, what goes down must come up..

          The earth's continents float on "tectonic plates", rock slightly "plasticized" by the core's heat and the overlying weight of rock and continents. Convective currents of plasticized rock, driven by the heat released from the earth's core, cause rock to rise and flow horizontally in places (mid ocean ridges). In other places, Japan, Chile for example, plasticized rock flows dive beneath continental plates ("subduction zones" responsible for the terrific earthquakes of Japan and Chile).


 An active subduction zone. The chunk of lithosphere diving beneath the continental crust carries with it C and O rich ocean sediments. In the depths of the earth under high pressure and heat these sediments decompose into simple chemical compounds: CO2, water, methane, SOx, etc which are then reinjected into the atmosphere through volcanic "outgasing", completing the elemental transport cycle: air to biosphere to seabed and back to atmosphere. These slow cycles are measured in multi-millions of years..

                  Five of the essential nutrients - H, C, O, N and S - are said to be "doubly mobile", being transportable in liquid water and by winds. These highly mobile elements engage in short period, high flow rate cycles of limited geographical extent. A carbon atom may cycle rapidly within a tropical swamp for millennia, moving from plant to herbivore to carnivore to decomposer and back to a simple carbon molecule (CO2 or methane) before being reabsorbed by a plant. The cycle time may be of the order of months or years.

And the place of humanity in natural cycles? Early humans, few in numbers and technologically primitive, did not disrupt the cycling of essential nutrients very much. Estimates of the stone age human population range from a few hundred thousand to a million or so. These populations varied wildly according to climatic cycles. When local / regional climates took a turn for the worse - cooling, desertification.. - regional populations could be forced to emigrate - or die off. Like animal populations these early hunter-gatherer-(? scavenger ?) populations rose and fell with fluctuating environmental conditions. Only through human curiosity and ingenuity did human societies manage to impose an upward inflection on the environmentally driven fluctuations in numbers: improvements in hunting technology, tools, clothing and the various "revolutions": the discovery of fire, ceramics, agriculture, animal domestication, copper and, later, bronze and iron..

          As late as the time of Christ, human population numbered no more than 200 to 300 million! To put this in perspective: the current world population is heading toward 7.5 billion, thirty times the world population at the height of the Roman Empire. Paradoxically, with this "tiny" population, the ancients managed to invent "civilization": law, government, writing, mathematics, the rudiments of the scientific method, literature, theater, art, architecture, philosophy, an irregular but augmenting pace of technological advance.. Perhaps our modern numbers, rather than being an asset, as some rosy optimists claim, are the millstone around our neck that will drown us..

           The problem is twofold. There are many more of us in recent times, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, about two centuries ago. In addition, our individual environmental impacts have rocketed skyward during that time, compounding or increasing the impact due to population growth alone (note 2). To obtain all that energy - often employed wastefully or for frivolous ends - we burn massive quantities of fossil fuels  (coal, oil, gas, peat..), upsetting the chemical balance of cycling nutrients with the gaseous byproducts of all that combustion: CO2, methane, NOx and SOx. In addition, industrialized farming with its massive dependence upon chemical fertilizers has upset the N cycle.

             The crux of the problem:

       "Since the 1950s some anthropogenic flows have come to rival the largest biospheric fluxes even on a global scale.. emissions of S from fossil fuel combustion and metal smelting now surpass the combined global production by bacteria and volcanoes..
        The quantity of NOx we generate is at least equal to all natural flows.. all this reactive N is now providing surprisingly high levels of fertilization to natural ecosystems, a development.. with both welcome and worrisome consequences." Page 16-17

        "Worrisome consequences": in the long run, as levels of anthropogenic emissions rise with population growth and industrialization of the Third World, the outcome of such meddling in nature's workings becomes increasingly unpredictable.

          Likewise, fossil fuel combustion releases CO2 formerly "sequestered" in the earth's bowels. The amount released now "surpasses the rate with which oceans and plants can remove all this additional input from the atmosphere. The result is a steady increase in the atmospheric concentration of this most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas - and the possibility of global climate change". Page 17, emphasis added. (note 3)

          The above citation deserves rereading: it gives the lie to one of the fallacies propagated by Global Warming "sceptics" and deniers. The annual amount of C released by human economic activities, transport, agriculture, etc is indeed "tiny" compared to the amount of C sequestered in the soil or to the annual photosynthetic / respiratory rate of (biological) C cycling. These facts are then falsely interpreted to argue that human emissions must be harmless. The "logic"  is flawed for two reasons:

Fallacy 1- it is not the amount of anthropogenic C released each year that matters but the fact that the natural equilibrium is perturbed. The excess can no longer be absorbed by the biosphere, soil and waters with the result that that CO2 levels, while "tiny" are climbing rapidly, at an unprecedented rate. 


            This record from the Mauna Loa, Hawaii, observatory indicates that mean atmospheric CO2 levels have risen from 315 parts per million (ppm) in 1950 to about 395 ppm in 2015. That's 80 ppm on 315 ppm, a whopping, incredible 25% rise in a mere 50 years! The sawtooth pattern is due to the annual rise and fall in CO2 levels in the northern hemisphere caused by seasonal variations in photosynthetic activity. CO2 is absorbed in the warm months when plants are active and rises in the winter when plant life is dormant. Click on image for enlargement.

Fallacy 2- If CO2 were "neutral", innocuous, an imbalance in the global cycle of production and absorption would be less concerning, at least in the short run. But CO2 is not "innocuous". While not poisonous, it is a potent greenhouse gas (note 3), trapping solar energy in the lower atmosphere and disturbing the earth's natural thermodynamic (energy flow) balance. Climate and weather - driven by thermodynamic energy flows and equilibria - are perturbed with potentially disastrous results for world food production. Tradition agricultural systems - designed for traditional climates, weather patterns and extreme weather variations - could collapse if, say, the intensity and timing of monsoons were altered.

                 Current CO2 levels are way "out of bounds". Measures of "fossil" CO2 levels - from air bubbles trapped in glaciers - show that current CO2 levels are the highest in the last 130,000 years or so - since before the last ice age, way back in the warm Eemian Interglacial period when there were lions in London and hippopotamuses sported in the lakes and rivers of Germany.. Our current agricultural systems may end up as road kill if climate changes too rapidly for natural - and human - adaptation to occur.  

                Simplistic clichés propagated by global warming deniers and "sceptics" - "CO2 is not a poison, it is plant food".. - belie a profound (sometimes deliberate) ignorance of biological and ecological processes. Increasing CO2 indeed stimulates some ecosystems - for a while at least. Other ecosystems where C is not a limiting growth factor are not stimulated as much (or not at all). Plant species - and ecosystem types - are highly variable in their response to CO2 enrichment,.. And then, do we really want to "fertilize" the really nasty plants?

http://www.weather.com/science/nature/news/poison-ivy-oak-stronger-climate-change

              Ecosystems are complex, dynamic, interconnected systems which strive to maintain their internal integrity in the face of the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune: forest fires, floods, extreme windstorms, drought, killer frosts, epidemics, invasive species, climate change, loss of species.. Disturbing a self-organizing system (SOS) like an ecosystem leaves no lasting impact if the disturbance lies within the capacity of the system to adapt. There is much evidence today to support the claim that we are pushing our planet's biospheres beyond their "design limits" and that they can no longer adapt to the assaults humanity is unwittingly delivering. The risk is that a severely disturbed SOS - our planetary biosphere, rather than striving to return to its initial state of equilibrium, may collapse (rapid die off and drop in biodiversity, the number of resident species). The SOS may also "mutate" or "change state": one ecosystem type may be replaced by another, perhaps one inhabitable for many of the original inhabitants.

              There is accumulating evidence that just such an ecosystemic collapse is occurring now:

half of terrestrial species go missing in (a mere) forty years

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/09/1409030-animals-wildlife-wwf-decline-science-world/ 

same thing for about 40% or so of the oceans' species in the last four decades

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6108414.stm 

Something's wrong, very wrong..

Why is the late news starting to look like a Sci-Fi film? At the limit, climate change - induced by greenhouse gas emissions - may trigger ecological succession or collapse in stressed seas and soil in ways that may convert them from CO2 sinks - storing anthropogenic C - into C sources. They would then begin spewing billions of tons of CO2 and methane thereby amplifying the global warming which triggered the release of C in the first place! (Such a self-reinforcing loop is called "positive feedback".) The Siberian Times has been reporting mysterious "methane blow holes" in thawing permafrost. The permafrost thaws as a result of global warming. Bacteria feed on the thawed, now accessible, organic matter stored in the soil, generating methane and CO2. When enough gas pressure builds up fast enough, Boom!, it blows, creating a spectacular crater. Check out the photos in this link: would make a fantastic beginning for a Sci-Fi (or Horror) film. Now just what is lurking down in those craters..

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/  


                 Remember the descent into the hold of the alien ship in the movie Alien?



             Nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) also possess their store of jack-in-the-box surprises. NOx from combustion and outgasing from overfertilized soil react with other combustion by products to produce that potent urban witch's brew known as (photochemical) smog. The health impacts of this chemical soup are now too well known (think, Chinese cities!): lung injury, immunity problems, aggravated respiratory and cardiac illnesses, bleaching of dyes, architectural erosion; damage to textile, rubber, plastic, etc. All these constitute a hidden "pollution sur-tax" rarely included in conventional estimates of economic "development"..

              There is still so much we don't know, so much we have to learn, and so little time, given the pace things are now unfolding at..

              Consider, "blow back" or unintended negative consequences of actions. Attempts to reduce CO2 emissions by boosting combustion efficiency often show a N related boomerang effect. A more efficient - hotter - boiler for an electrical generating plant may indeed release less CO2 - and a lot more NOx! The same applies to car engines, making yet another argument in favor of investment in public transport: more passenger miles per unit of fuel consumed..

               N runoff - from fertilizer - and deposition by wind is causing eutrophication - algal blooms - in coastal zones. 





                              some red, some green - all toxic..


          Algal blooms stimulated by fertilizer and sewer runoff can, eventually, lead to "dead zones". The water column, depleted of O from bacterial decomposition of all that excess organic matter, becomes anoxic (no-oxygen) and therefore incapable of supporting life, except for hardy decomposer bacteria. Worse, the water is tainted with poisonous hydrogen sulfide gas. Such dead zones can impact negatively on the economic and ecological viability of fisheries, essential sources of protein on an already over-populated planet. N is a good thing, too much - bad..

                          root nodules: symbiosis between plant and nitrogen-fixing bacteria

               The symbiosis between leguminous veggies and N fixing bacteria allows the plant to absorb biologically inert nitrogen from the air, soil or water and convert ("fix") it in a reactive form usable for the plant's growth and metabolism. To do so, the plant feeds energy and nutrients to the bacteria in return for a "profit" on its "investment": N is often a bottleneck, a limiting factor, in plant growth and reproduction.

              "Yet neither the biosphere's apparent record of resilience nor the successes of our more rational management guarantee a comfortable outlook. The great forces that have led to more than a century of rising interferences in biospheric cycles - the rapid growth of global population and its quest for higher standards of living - will only intensify during the next generation and will not slow down for at least another half a century. We are in the midst of an open-ended test of the compatibility of our civilization and the biosphere, and the test's most crucial stage is yet to come." Page 194 

           These words were penned nearly 20 years ago. Prof Smil placed the "test's most crucial stage" in the future. Today, we are there. The sh*t is now IN the fan..

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/26/a-crime-against-humanity-hothouse-wildfire-smoke-sickens-500000-as-indonesian-officials-plan-for-mass-evacuations/ 

"Since Vernadsky's death in 1945 some new and powerful trends - above all the information revolution and a strong tendency toward global economic integration and political cooperation - have given us new tools and means.. Are we now moving in the right direction, with our incipient attempts at managing the global commons through international treaties and cooperative agreements, with our attempts to preserve biodiversity, and with our thinking about sustainable economies?
           Or are we entering a period of planetary disarray, during which the ever-present forces of self-destruction, and social and political disintegration, will be greatly magnified by the unprecedented damage we will have inflicted on the biosphere? Vernadsky's judgment regarding the long-term prospects for the biosphere was unequivocal. Shortly before his death, in a letter to a colleague written during the final months of World War II, he concluded:

           I look forward with great optimism. I think that we are experiencing not only an historical change, but a planetary one as well. We live in a transition to the noosphere." Page 203

noosphere: a "new state of the biosphere" with a unified humanity serving as the thinking consciousness of nature. From the writings of Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky (1863 - 1945), a visionary Russian scientist who was one of the founders of the concept of the biosphere. Such thoughts have found a certain currency during the 20th century - predating the the economic "globalization" of recent decades. One could cite, among others,

- the French theologian Theilhard de Chardin: "noosphère" - the realm of ideas, taken collectively,

- James Lovelock, the inventor of the Gaia Hypothesis:"The Awakening of Gaia", humanity as the "thinking part of nature",

- Edgar Morin, French philosopher of self-organization theory: "noosphère" - same sense as Teilhard de Chardin,..


                               Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky - whole earth visionary

notes:

1- for a more recent and technical work on Energetics: V Smil: Energy in nature and society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 2008

2- As stated, the argument overstates the impact: third world energy consumption lags behind the "developed" world's. However, in recent decades the Chinese and the Indians are doing their damned best to catch up to our wasteful energy and material consumption habits so the general argument stands.

3- greenhouse gas, greenhouse effect: high frequency solar radiation (mostly visible light) passes through the atmosphere with little attenuation. It is absorbed by the earth, vegetation and dark ocean surface waters, heating them. The heated surfaces radiate infrared (low frequency) radiation. Unlike visible light, the atmosphere is quite opaque to some frequencies of the infrared spectrum. This hinders the flow of heat outward, toward space from the earth. Think of wearing a warm sweater on a cool autumn evening: it traps and slows the loss of heat (infrared) from one's body. This insulating effect has also been compared to the panes of glass in a greenhouse. They allow light to enter freely, being transparent to visible light. Inside the greenhouse the light is absorbed by the various surfaces - soil, plants.., heating them. The heat (infrared) from the heated surfaces is blocked by the glass and passes slowly. The result is that the temperature in the greenhouse is higher than the ambient air temperature outside. Like the glass in the greenhouse, some atmospheric gases are efficient infrared absorbers - they block the passage of infrared rays. The most efficient greenhouse gas is water vapor, followed by CO2 and methane (methane is on a volumic basis a more efficient infrared absorber than CO2 but CO2 wins out because it is present at much higher concentrations). Adding CO2 and methane to the atmosphere increases the atmosphere's heat trapping capacity causing global warming. (click on image for enlargement)